A measure of predictive sharpness for probabilistic models (2025)
Here is a recent preprint on predictive sharpness.

arXiv link (https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2509.03309)
code (https://github.com/psyrjane/Predictive-sharpness)

Dimensions of predictive success (2024)
Evaluation of predictive success has typically focused on two criteria: accuracy and use-novelty. In this paper, I advocate for a broader view of predictive success, where predictive success is measured based on multiple dimensions. Logical dimensions of predictive success include accuracy, specificity, scope, and depth. Contingent dimensions of predictive success include forecasting, use-novelty, theoretical novelty, and temporal novelty. I analyze interrelations between the dimensions, as well as their relevance to theory confirmation and theory development.

Syrjänen, P. (forthcoming). Dimensions of Predictive Success. The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science. https://doi.org/10.1086/733193.

Accepted draft (pdf)

Novel prediction and the problem of low-quality accommodation (2023)
Novel prediction is often thought to hold special value in theory confirmation. One argument in favor of this view is that if theorists do not make novel predictions, but rather use evidence that they already know (i.e. they ‘accommodate’ evidence), the theory building process may become more unreliable. In effect, when the evidence is already known, theorists have an opportunity to use various questionable methods to ensure that a theory that fits the evidence is produced. I investigate the idea that the problems of accommodation result in an advantage of novel prediction over accommodation in light of scientific practice (including Questionable Research Practices, preregistration), and reach the conclusion that despite its intuitive appeal, it may not hold water in the sciences. Novel prediction also has certain disadvantages, and accommodation provides advantages that are often overlooked.

Syrjänen, P. (2023). Novel prediction and the problem of low-quality accommodation. Synthese, 202, 182. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11229-023-04400-2.

The epistemic role of prediction in science (PhD thesis) (2022)
I recently defended my PhD thesis at the University of Helsinki. The thesis examines the prediction versus accommodation problem in the philosophy of science. The thesis can be found here (pdf).